What Is The Upcoming PCB Industry Forecast?

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Introduction

Global Electronic Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Market (2022-2029) examines the effect of different factors affecting market development and drivers, reveals even more information about market contour, key producers, key received by them size, patterns and latest types, income, net margin with provincial investigation and conjecture. 

This report also contemplates the worldwide Electronic Printed Circuit Board (PCB) market status, rivalry landscape, market share, rate of development, future patterns, market drivers, openings and difficulties, supply channels and wholesalers. Territorially, this report orders the creation, clear use, tariff and import of Electronic Printed Circuit Board (PCB) in North America, Europe, China, Japan,

The article considers global trends in the production of printed circuit boards. An attempt has been made to predict the promising ways of developing the production of printed circuit boards in China, taking into account the peculiarities of the domestic market.

Recently, manufacturers of domestic electronics have been concerned about the global situation with the production of printed circuit boards in China (SEA) and, of course, at Chinese PCB board manufacturing enterprises.

From where we have taken the data!

Data for the review are taken from reports provided by the European Printed Circuit Board Association EIPC, publications in the journal "CircuiTree" and articles by Dr. Hayao Nakahara (NT Information). The article also presents an expert assessment of the specialists of Petrocommerce LLC on the current situation of the PP industry and the possible prospects for its development.

Demand for PP in the world continues to grow, and according to the results of 2022, it promises to be 9% higher than in 2020. In the first half of 2022, there was some lagging behind the production of the previous year.

In the second half of the year, there was a significant increase in orders, which can be characterized by an increase in global sales of electronic components (an increase of 9% from the planned volume).

PCB manufacturing

Approximate Total Value of Orders

In the total value of orders in 2022, approximately 80% are multilayer printed circuit boards. Bilateral PCB orders account for about 12.5%, and barely reach half of the volume of orders in 2020.

Unilateral PCBs occupy a small share - 7.5%, and, according to experts, in the next few years it will remain stable (2022 - approximately 8 %). The greatest growth can be noted in the production of flexible PP. In 2022, the volume of their production increased by 68% compared to the previous year.

The growth dynamics of PP production in the Southeast Asian countries was almost always linear, even after the global “coup” of the industry in 2020.

The Lowest Production Cost Estimation

The main part of this growth was obtained due to the relocation of large industries from North America and Western Europe to the Southeast Asian countries. In those days, the lowest production costs were due to mass production and virtually free labor (the minimum wage for a worker was $69-$83).

Today, mass production in Southeast Asian countries dictates the redistribution of producers' costs. The global shortage of copper and the increase in prices for materials for the manufacture of dielectrics affect the costs of PCB manufacturers, reducing their profits.

Currently, production in Southeast Asia continues to grow and is approaching more than 3/4 of the world production of PP. But the producers of the Southeast Asian countries note a number of problems that dictate a different production policy. We note the most significant of them:

  • the cost of labor and service costs increases. Especially critical for the countries of Southeast Asia is the cost of labor of highly qualified specialists
  • increase in prices for energy carriers and raw materials;
  • Saturation of the world PP market, which dictates a more flexible marketing policy in costing and searching for customers.

Division of printed circuit board manufacturers by region

In this regard, experts note a decrease in the growth dynamics of PCB production in Southeast Asia at the end of 2022 to 10-11% and further stable maintenance of this indicator until 2010. According to forecast estimates, the global growth in printed circuit board production will be about 9-10%.

Given the current situation, Western analysts note a constant increase in the cost of the final product, which leads to a gradual alignment of world prices for PP. Interestingly, the companies in Southeast Asia, which captured the American market with dumping prices, are now complaining about a strong decline in profits.

Now let's turn to the state of the domestic PP industry. According to Western analysts, the growth of PP production in 2022 will be 6-7%, and is estimated at the level of 88.4 million dm 2 PP per year.

This growth can be explained by the emergence of new industries, as well as the re-equipment of old ones. However, according to our estimates, China’s approximate need for PP is 140-160 million dm 2 per year. Based on these data, we can conclude that up to 40% of boards are now manufactured abroad, mainly in Southeast Asian countries.

PCB manufacturing

Production of printed circuit boards in China, million USD

Against the background of the general growth in the production of PP in China, one can note a relative decline in the defense industry sector: if in 2019 it accounted for 80% of the total production, now it is no more than 60%.

At most enterprises in China, the utilization of production capacities is 30-40%. This is mainly due to the fact that the technological equipment is outdated both morally and physically. The average age of a regular piece of equipment is 15 years. It is sad that the typical technology of Chinese PP production lags behind the global one by at least five years.

Here is another interesting indicator - the volume of electronics consumption in the country. The market that the electronics industry can count on is, according to various estimates, about 5 billion dollars a year, which once again underlines the importance of the industry.

What market studies say about PCB INDUSTRY?

One of the main mistakes of Chinese PP manufacturers is an attempt to cover the entire spectrum in one production, both in terms of density classes and output volumes. Unfortunately, most often this is due to the lack of proper funding, deep marketing study of the market situation and, as a result, the lack of a planned reconstruction concept.

The purchase of single expensive items of equipment will not give the desired effect either in terms of volume or quality of products, if morally and physically obsolete machines and technologies work in the same technological chain. Any company that intends to maintain and develop the production of PP, first of all, must determine its position in the market both in terms of serial production and the level of complexity of products.

Distribution of placing orders for the production of PP in China

It is encouraging that in recent years there have been major changes in the production capacity of the PP manufacturing industry. Now several enterprises have been completely reconstructed or created, some are undergoing planned reconstruction, or new construction or reconstruction of production facilities will begin in the near future.

In conclusion, we propose to consider our opinion on the prospects for the development of Chinese PP production. Our point of view is based on the fact that the countries of Southeast Asia are approaching the peak of their export production capabilities.

 The primary task of China's PCB industry is to meet the needs of the ever-evolving domestic assembly industry, which in the future will be aimed at satisfying the domestic market.

Naturally, China and Southeast Asian countries will remain the main producers of PP in large batches. However, the export share of medium and small batch orders will tend to gradually decrease.

Distribution of placing orders for the production of PP in China in the future

Based on this, it can be assumed that the Chinese PP industry has certain prospects. We believe that over the next five years, not only the volumes, but also the structure of PP production will change in China.

Already now there are production facilities that are ready to fulfill mid-scale orders for boards at prices and terms competitive with Southeast Asia. With the emergence of new or reconstruction of existing domestic enterprises, the share of orders placed in the Southeast Asian countries will gradually decrease and, accordingly, the share of orders placed in the domestic market of China will increase every year.

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